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Project Management Estimation Methods

Posted by mgocean on May 28, 2009 in Earned Value Analysis, Estimation, Project Management |

Estimation is a frequently occurring phenomenon in our everyday lives. When we leave home for the office in the morning, we roughly estimate the time it will take to reach the office. When we plan to make a business analysis presentation in a meeting, we estimate the time it will take to complete the presentation, perhaps including time for questions and answers as well. A Project Manager estimates the schedule and cost required to complete the projects according to specific requirements. The driver of a car moving at a specific speed encounters an object crossing the road and instantly estimates the time it will take the car to reach the point of intersection and then corrects the speed accordingly. In all these everyday situations, the estimating activity happens sometimes consciously and sometimes subconsciously. It remains for the user to determine the level of estimation accuracy needed, based on the criticality of the activity itself. Above all, the process of estimation itself is refined iteratively in each of the preceding situations, based on historic data or past experience.

The quality and accuracy of estimations in professional life affects the reputation and revenue of the company dramatically.  The predictions in project management is done on time and budget scale.   Of course these are all theoretical approaches.  In practical business life your boss usually does the estimation for you.  Your boss rescues you from this tiring ang boring process like declaring his/her detailed!!! estimation with “finish it by the end of this month” sentence.

 

Of course more scientific mwthods of estimation exists.  The estimations can be made ​​at every stage of projects, and as it appears in the following figure, the  accuracy of estimation may be more realistic near the end of projects.  At the closing coctail of the project you may easily predict that the project closes after the last drink.

 

The progress of the project can be tracked by EVA(Earned Value Analysis).  EVA analyzes the progress in the meaning of time and budget.   For more detailed inf about EVA you may review my Project Management – Earned Value Analysis post.

Kestirim yöntemlerinde sıklıkla başvurulan kaynaklar, geçmiş projelerden üretilen veriler ve uzman görüşleridir. Özellikle IT projelerinde kullanılan kestirim yöntemleri; Kestiri yöntemi üzerindeki bağlantıdan yöntemle ilgili detaylı bilgiye erişebilirsiniz.

Historical data of past projects and expert judgements are mostly referenced while estimationg projects.

1- Butom up Estimation
2- Top Down Estimation
3- Parametric Estimation / COCOMO
4- Delphi Method
5- Function Point Method
6- Expert Judgement
7- PERT

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